| Jewish World
Review July 10, 2003 / 10 Tamuz, 5763
Michael Ledeen
The Future of Iran: Armitage might want to rethink that
"democracy" line
http://www.NewsAndOpinion.com | Yesterday, July 9, was the day the Iranian student
movement has designated for national demonstrations against the regime,
and a general strike in favor of democracy. Shaken by weeks of recent
protests, and worried about the mounting criticism from several Western
countries, the regime has taken unprecedented steps to head off a
potential showdown with its own people:
- Thousands of political activists, students, and others, have been
rounded up and packed into prisons, subjected to torture, and in some
cases murdered.
- Children of parliamentarians have been summarily arrested, as have
parents of Iranian democracy advocates living abroad.
- Great efforts have gone into ensuring that Iranians cannot
communicate with one another, either by telephone (cells have been shut
down) or radio or television (the U.S.-based independent radio and
television stations have been reporting a new jamming campaign against
their satellite broadcasts. As of late on the night of the 8th, it was
impossible to isolate the source of the jamming). Satellite dishes have
been torn down, and smashed in the streets.
- Ditto for the press. Journalists have been arrested, newspapers have
been closed. In short, everything the regime could do to isolate the
Iranian people from the outside world has been done.
- New security forces have been recruited. Lacking confidence in the
willingness of Iranians to beat and kill their own, the regime has
brought in Lebanese Hezbollahi, members of the Badr Brigades from Iraq
(where they'd been dispatched as part of the "insurgency" against
American forces), the usual "Afghan Arabs," and, reportedly, Palestinian
toughs. All reminiscent of the Chinese tactics in Tiananmen Square,
where they imported soldiers from remote regions to suppress the
pro-democracy uprising.
For those who believe that revolution is a test of will, and that a
regime willing to use any amount of terror required to retain power will
probably survive, these are at once ominous and encouraging signs.
Ominous, because this regime does not appear ready to go quietly;
encouraging, because the mullahs are not facing a handful of
revolutionaries, but a mass movement.
I have long argued
that the United States could provide the decisive support that would
guarantee success of the democratic revolution. All Iranians, from the top
ayatollahs to the student organizers, believe that America is capable of
guaranteeing the outcome of the conflict, and they are all trying to
decipher the American strategy. Whenever President Bush speaks warmly of
the demonstrators, they are enormously encouraged; whenever some other
official — typically from the State Department — speaks words subject to
many interpretations (or, worse still, proclaims the current regime "a
democracy," as Deputy Secretary of State Armitage did in February), it
sends a chill through the hearts of the freedom fighters. Despite the
endless barrage of anti-American rhetoric from the mullahs, they still
maneuver to be able to demonstrate American acceptance of their power,
knowing that any hint of American legitimization of the regime will weaken
their opponents.
In Iran, where
treachery has long been the national sport and superstition the bedrock of
political analysis, the people are casting runes and reading entrails,
searching for certainty about the American strategy. Once they know it,
they will act accordingly. If they see clearly, once and for all, that the
United States is serious about regime change in Tehran, the ranks of the
opposition will swell beyond counting. If they conclude that we have
betrayed them to their masters, they will give up the struggle, at least
temporarily. This is yet another reason why a clear American policy is so
desperately needed. And still, the defining document, the long-awaited
National Security Presidential Directive (NSPD) on Iran, gathers mold in
the bowels of the bureaucracy, even though we have declared ourselves at
war with the terror masters since September 12, 2001.
In this confusion,
the mullahs are stalling for time. They believe that if they can ride the
whirlwind until next year, the president will forget foreign policy and
devote all his energies to his reelection. They also believe that they can
bloody us in Iraq, sending scores or even hundreds of body bags to
American shores, eventually sapping our will and sending us home. And they
believe that once they can demonstrate possession of an atomic bomb, they
will become the North Korea of the Middle East, invulnerable to American
attack.
They are wrong on all
counts. If this president sees our victory in Iraq threatened by Iranian
sabotage, he will act with the same resolve he has shown since the war
against the terror masters began nearly two years ago. Nothing would spur
him on more than the spectacle of dead American soldiers. And an Iranian
bomb would only add to his urgency, and strengthen the case for American
support of the democratic revolution. The bomb might deter a military
attack, but the doom of the mullahs will not come from the barrel of a
gun. It will come from millions of Iranians in the public spaces of the
major cities, demanding an end to their misery. 
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JWR contributor
Michael Ledeen is a fellow at the American Enterprise Institute and author
of, most recently, ""The War Against the Terror Masters," Comment by clicking here.
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01/31/02: The truth behind the Powell play
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01/08/02: What's the Holdup?: It's time for the next
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02/20/01: Unity Schmoonity: Sharon is defying the will of
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12/21/00: Clinton’s gift for Bush
© 2001, Michael
Ledeen |
